Current: Brent $103.82 | WTI $99.30
What's driving this:
US-Iran war escalation pushed oil up ~20% this week. Strait of Hormuz is the big one — about 20% of global oil passes through there.
How markets could react tonight (6PM EST open):
Peace talks or de-escalation? Brace for a pullback. $90-$95 on Brent is realistic.
More attacks or Strait disruption? $110+ comes quick. That's the tail risk.
Nothing changes? Expect choppy action between $100-$105.
Bottom line:
The market's pricing in conflict, not peace. Any de-escalation triggers a sell-off. Any escalation triggers more gains.
Check headlines before the 6PM bell. That's your wildcard.
bnwraptor